Rain deficit hits over one-third of India, Assam districts affected
IMD data shows about 35% of India's land area with significant rain deficit, spanning 412 districts in 14 states/UTs. Assam has deficits in 19 of its 35 districts during the current monsoon season.
Key takeaways
- About 35% of India's geographical area is experiencing a significant rain deficit according to IMD data.
- 412 districts across 14 states/UTs are affected, with Assam reporting deficits in 19 of its 35 districts.
- Seasonal rainfall since June 1 is 13% below normal, totaling 554.2 mm.
What Happened
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that roughly 35% of India's geographical area has experienced a notable rain deficit during the current monsoon season. This deficit covers 412 districts across 14 states and Union Territories in the south peninsula, northeast, and parts of eastern and northwest India. In Assam, 19 out of 35 districts recorded rainfall deficits.
Seasonal rainfall since June 1 totalled 554.2 mm, which is 13% below the seasonal normal. The IMD notes that rainfall departure from normal has stayed negative throughout the season. Despite some central-India rainfall activity in July and August, the overall distribution of rainfall has been uneven at the district level.
State-level patterns show varied results: Goa has a 33% deficit (1713.2 mm recorded versus a normal of 2562 mm), Kerala is at a 23% deficit (1283.3 mm vs 1671.4 mm), and Punjab shows a 33% deficit (226.9 mm vs 338.2 mm). Rajasthan has a 22% deficit (268.3 mm vs 345 mm). Assam registers a 24% deficit. Odisha is reported as having normal or above-normal rainfall across its 30 districts, contrasting with Bihar and Manipur, which are noted for normal rainfall in some districts amidst broader deficits. Meghalaya shows a extreme local variation with one district (southwest Khasi Hills) recording excess rainfall while the rest exhibit deficits ranging from substantial to large deficits.
Forecasts indicate ongoing monsoon activity driven by low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, with the system expected to move northwestward in the coming days. The region from Konkan through parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat is anticipated to continue experiencing heavy spells through the end of August, with monsoon activity remaining focused over central India and adjacent coastal regions.
Why It Matters
The broad area with rainfall deficit and the district-level disparities signal potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and regional hydrological balance. Persistent deficits could affect crop yields in affected regions and stress water supply in districts with historically variable rainfall. The concentration of deficits in states like Assam, Goa, Punjab, and Rajasthan points to regionalized monsoon variability that may require targeted adaptation and resource management in the coming weeks.
Background
The current monsoon season began in June, with IMD data showing a negative rainfall departure from normal since the start of the season. Previous months had seen rainfall activity concentrated in central India, with both very high and very low rainfall patterns across different states and districts. The ongoing low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal have influenced landward monsoon dynamics, shaping the uneven distribution described above.
Key Facts
- 35% of India’s geographical area experienced a significant rain deficit.
- 412 districts across 14 states/UTs affected by the deficit.
- Assam: deficits in 19 of its 35 districts.
- Seasonal rainfall since June 1: 554.2 mm, 13% below normal.
- Goa deficit: 33% (1713.2 mm vs 2562 mm normal).
- Punjab deficit: 33% (226.9 mm vs 338.2 mm normal).
- Kerala deficit: 23% (1283.3 mm vs 1671.4 mm normal).
- Rajasthan deficit: 22% (268.3 mm vs 345 mm normal).
- Meghalaya: one district with excess rainfall; others show deficit (range -60% to -99% in some districts).
- Odisha: all 30 districts reported normal or above-normal rainfall this season.
- Forecast: low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal may keep monsoon active in parts of West UP, West MP, and Chhattisgarh until Aug 29; widespread heavy spells forecast for Konkan, Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat through month-end.
What Happens Next
The IMD forecast suggests continued monsoonal activity in central regions and the prospect of heavy spells in specified coastal and adjoining areas through the end of August. Regions with acute deficits may require monitoring of water levels, agricultural planning adjustments, and disaster preparedness if rainfall patterns intensify or shift in the near term.
Sources reviewed
Project Chintan independently synthesized and analyzed information cross-checked across the sources listed above.
