Escalation trap: on the U.S. and the war with Iran

The decision by Yemen’s Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia signals that the war on Iran has entered its most dangerous phase. The Houthis, a close Iranian ally, had avoided direct involvement due to a fragile but functional ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, despite their controlling most of Yemen’s population centres, including capital Sana’a. That ceasefire effectively fell apart on July 13 when an airport in Sanaa was attacked by forces of “Yemen’s internationally recognised government”. Based in Saudi Arabia, this government maintains loyal forces inside Yemen, though the Houthis remain the country’s most powerful and influential political and military force. Blaming Riyadh for the attack, the Houthis announced on July 20 a blockade on ships using Saudi ports on the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, whose crude and other exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been severely constrained by Iran’s blockade, has increased its reliance on Red Sea ports, especially Yanbu. Tankers from Yanbu to Asian markets must pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The Houthis control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb and can enforce a blockade of the chokepoint.

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Israel war began on February 28, all Persian Gulf states struggled to sustain their exports. Saudi Arabia, however, cushioned the impact by using its East-West Pipeline, which links its eastern oilfields to the Red Sea export terminals. If the Houthis enforce a total blockade on the kingdom, Riyadh could face far deeper economic disruption. This, coupled with Iran’s attacks on Kuwait’s desalination plants and power grid — after U.S. strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure — paints a grim picture of the war and its regional consequences. If the first phase of Iran’s counterattack targeted the Persian Gulf monarchies, the second has expanded to include Jordan, which hosts two major U.S. military bases. Now, with the Houthi blockade, the war’s economic pain is set to deepen further. U.S. President Donald Trump had an opportunity to extricate himself from the conflict when he signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17. But by returning to war over disputes surrounding control of the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump has not only squandered the opportunity but has also raised the risk of dragging the U.S. into yet another forever, unwinnable war. At this point, he is pursuing the same military tactics against Iran repeatedly, expecting different results. If Mr. Trump wants a way out, he should change course, push for an immediate ceasefire and return to diplomacy.