--- title: "Very strong El Niño likely to persist to Feb 2027, says WMO" url: https://projectchintan.com/article/very-strong-el-nino-to-2027-367ry publisher: Project Chintan author: Project Chintan Newsroom section: Science & Technology published: 2026-09-03T22:30:33.442Z modified: 2026-09-04T01:30:04.734Z language: en-IN --- # Very strong El Niño likely to persist to Feb 2027, says WMO WMO cites an exceptionally high likelihood of El Niño lasting through February 2027 and strengthening to very strong intensity before peaking late this year, with impacts expected to extend into 2027. ## Key takeaways - WMO forecasts near-100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027. - The event is expected to strengthen to a very strong intensity before peaking late in 2026 and continuing impacts into 2027. - Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have risen well above average, signaling ongoing intensification. - Authorities emphasize prepared, coordinated responses across nations to mitigate climate-related risks. - Impacts will vary by region and season, with floods, droughts, and extreme heat among possible outcomes. ## What Happened The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its Global Producing Centers have issued an update indicating an exceptionally high likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. The forecast anticipates the event strengthening toward a very strong intensity in the coming months and maintaining climate impacts well into 2027. Officials emphasised that this would be the first time a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting broad agreement across WMO's network. The central-eastern equatorial Pacific has experienced unusually warm ocean conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have risen above normal, with measurements showing values around +1.5°C to +2.0°C above average in mid-2026 and further climbing to between +2.2°C and +2.6°C in late July to mid-August. These readings are cited as indicators of an intensifying El Niño and part of the basis for the projected escalation to very strong strength, followed by sustained impacts into 2027. Statements accompanying the update describe the El Niño episode as intensifying in a context of record- or near-record-warm ocean conditions and highlight a global pattern of disrupted rainfall, heat, and related hazards expected to unfold across multiple regions. International voices emphasised the need for preparation and coordinated action to protect people and economies. ## Why It Matters Analysts warn that a very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of substantial changes in rainfall, temperatures, and atmospheric circulation across many regions. The update underscores that the strength of El Niño does not guarantee uniform impacts for every country or region, as effects vary by location and season and may be modified by other climate drivers. The anticipated persistence into 2027 implies extended periods of extreme weather, including floods, droughts, and heat, with wide-ranging implications for agriculture, energy, water resources, and disaster management. ## Background El Niño is a natural ocean-atmosphere phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Its phases, El Niño and La Niña, are central drivers of global climate variability. The WMO update notes that forecasts are based on a consensus of models from its Global Producing Centers and experts across national meteorological services and climate prediction centers. ## Key Facts - Likelihood El Niño will persist through February 2027: nearly 100% - Projected intensity: strengthening to very strong, peaking toward the end of 2026 - Sea surface temperature (SST) in Niño 3.4 region: above-normal readings, with early 2026 values around +1.5°C to +2.0°C; late July–mid-August values around +2.2°C to +2.6°C - Global emphasis on exceptional preparation and climate-action coordination ## What Happens Next Officials indicate ongoing monitoring and a major mobilization of meteorological services to provide forecasts and services needed for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors. While the precise regional impacts will vary, authorities are preparing for elevated risks of extreme weather across multiple regions throughout the coming months and into 2027. --- Canonical: https://projectchintan.com/article/very-strong-el-nino-to-2027-367ry Reported from: Multiple Sources