---
title: "Indonesia Faces Stronger El Niño, Higher Drought and Fire Risk"
url: https://projectchintan.com/article/indonesia-el-nino-drought-risk-forest-fires-26rbc
publisher: Project Chintan
author: Project Chintan Newsroom
section: Global
published: 2026-08-11T17:59:05.167Z
modified: 2026-08-11T21:30:04.668Z
language: en-IN
---

# Indonesia Faces Stronger El Niño, Higher Drought and Fire Risk

Indonesia's weather is predicted to become drier and hotter due to a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This increases the risk of drought and forest fires, particularly in vulnerable regions.

## Key takeaways

- Indonesia is expected to experience drier and hotter weather due to a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
- The forecast indicates a significant increase in drought conditions across 95.62% of the country in early August.
- Vulnerable regions, including Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara, face heightened risks of water shortages and agricultural disruption.
- The dry conditions elevate the potential for forest and land fires, prompting public warnings against open burning.

## What Happened

Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts drier and hotter weather conditions from August 11 to August 17, 2026. This is attributed to the strengthening El Niño episode and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) trend. These conditions are expected to reduce water vapor supply to Indonesia, making the dry season potentially harsher than normal.

By the end of July 2026, 73.8 percent of Indonesia's territory had entered the dry season, a trend predicted to expand in August. Rainfall distribution in the third dekad of July showed 76.3 percent of the country experiencing below-normal rainfall. The BMKG predicts that rainfall below 50 millimeters per dekad will dominate 95.62 percent of Indonesia during the second dekad of August.

While localized rainfall is possible due to atmospheric disturbances, it is not expected to alter the overall dry pattern. The BMKG warns that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are above 2 degrees Celsius, indicating a strong El Niño, and the IOD index is around +0.63.

## Why It Matters

The increased risk of drought and drier conditions poses a significant threat to water availability, agriculture, and livelihoods. Java, Bali, and the Nusa Tenggara islands are identified as particularly vulnerable due to their monsoonal climate. Prolonged dry seasons can disrupt irrigation, alter planting schedules, reduce agricultural productivity, and lead to crop failure. Karst areas may face greater water availability challenges, while urban and intensive agricultural zones could see increased water competition.

The potential for forest and land fires is a major concern. Authorities are urging the public not to burn waste or clear land by burning, especially in areas experiencing water shortages.

Experts warn that persistent dry conditions could escalate from a weather and climate issue into a social, economic, and regional resilience challenge. The government is advised to enhance climate monitoring and water resource management, particularly in vulnerable monsoonal regions.

## Background

As of July 10, 2026, around 30,379 hectares of rice fields nationwide were affected by drought, with 12,207 hectares experiencing complete crop failure, according to the Agriculture Ministry. The BMKG estimates a 75% probability of El Niño reaching an "extremely strong" category between August and October.

Monsoonal regions, including parts of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Sulawesi, and southern Indonesia, are more susceptible to the impacts of dry periods compared to areas with equatorial rainfall patterns.

## Key Facts

- The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts drier and hotter weather in Indonesia from August 11 to 17, 2026.

- This forecast is influenced by a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

- 73.8% of Indonesia had entered its dry season by the end of July 2026, with this trend expected to expand.

- 95.62% of Indonesia is predicted to experience rainfall below 50 millimeters per dekad in the second week of August.

- Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara are identified as vulnerable regions due to their monsoonal climate.

- Approximately 30,379 hectares of rice fields were affected by drought nationwide as of July 10, 2026.

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Canonical: https://projectchintan.com/article/indonesia-el-nino-drought-risk-forest-fires-26rbc
Reported from: Multiple Sources